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Overdrafted players in fantasy football and who to draft instead

Overdrafted players in fantasy football and who to draft instead

COVERSABLE: CJ Stroud

The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year had an incredible debut season, throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions. With those numbers, it may be surprising that Stroud ended up being QB11 in total points and QB10 in points per game. He was a reliable starter, but far from a fantasy star. With another year under his belt and the signing of Stefon Diggs, some improvement in performance is certainly possible, but how much better can Stroud’s stats get? If Stroud maintains his passing yards and efficiency but jumps to 30 touchdowns, he would have been QB6 this year. That’s pretty much in line with his average draft position of QB5. Stroud is a solid runner, he had 167 rushing yards and three touchdowns last year, but he’s not a major dual threat like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson. This limits his potential as a fantasy star and gives reason to believe that Stroud will be drafted just above his ceiling.

INSTEAD: Draft Anthony Richardson

If you’re betting on a sophomore jump, Anthony Richardson is the candidate. Stroud’s style of play may not translate to fantasy scoreboards, but Richardson is built for the game. In his two full starts, he averaged 25.8 fantasy points. That’s a very small sample size, but if he had been held for a full season, he would have led the league. Richardson’s biggest hurdle is his health. If he can play the most games this season, it’s very likely he’ll outperform his ADP as the QB6 and 49th player overall. When you select a quarterback in the top 50 of a fantasy draft, you want a player with a chance to finish as the QB1. Richardson has that potential, and his yardage should provide a stable base.

FOR MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL CONTENT, CHECK OUT THE FOLLOWING LINKS:

–The top five fantasy football prospects for 2024

–Dynasty Fantasy Football Sleeper in the NFC East for 2024

–Eight Dynasty Rookie Sleepers for Fantasy Football in 2024

COVERS: Drake London

Buy: Drake London will have a career season in 2024

Sell: Drake London is one of the top 12 fantasy wide receivers

The Falcons’ offense should take a big step forward in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who spent time with the Los Angeles Rams. A big beneficiary will be Drake London, selected eighth overall in 2022, but will he make the jump and become a fantasy WR1? That’s not guaranteed. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were fantasy superstars in the Rams’ offense and, like London, are not known for their speed. Many have pointed to that to emphasize London’s fit in Robinson’s offense. However, Kupp and Nacua are the better route runners and separators. Nacua averaged 1.75 yards of separation last year, while London averaged 1.33. Nacua also averaged three times as many yards after the catch per target (4.0 for Nacua, 1.33 for London). London could build a good rapport with Kirk Cousins ​​or Michael Penix and be among the best players in the league in terms of targets, but that gamble requires an investment in the top 20. London has yet to prove himself as the best receiver in the league and will be drafted in a cluster with players like Davante Adams, Chris Olave and Nico Collins and ahead of Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Evans.

INSTEAD: Wait for George Pickens

Looking for an up-and-coming third-year receiver with a new offensive coordinator and a quarterback who is the clear No. 1 in his offense? Both Drake London and George Pickens fit that description, but they’re drafted three rounds apart. London, the WR12 according to FantasyPros, is in a better situation than Pickens, the WR27, but not enough to justify the distance. On paper, Kirk Cousins ​​is a far better quarterback than Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, but he’s entering his 36th season with a hamstring injury. There will be growing pains. The new playmaker in Pittsburgh? London’s head coach in Atlanta, Arthur Smith. London’s performance under Smith is a concern for Pickens, but keep in mind that AJ Brown was a fantasy WR1 with Smith as his coordinator in Tennessee. Smith has a track record as a strong offensive mind despite Atlanta’s struggles, and Pickens is the best skill player in Pittsburgh. He should be loaded with enough targets to make his draft position count. The same may not be true for London.

COVERSABLE: Sam LaPorta

After taking the league by storm as a rookie and finishing as a fantasy TE1, LaPorta has understandably risen to the top of the draft at that position. However, you have to put LaPorta’s historic rookie year in context. His 11.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game led all tight ends last year, but would have been the TE5 in 2021. LaPorta is drafted ten spots ahead of Travis Kelce and two rounds earlier than Trey McBride, Mark Andrews and Dalton Kincaid. All four have a good chance of finishing as a TE1, as does LaPorta. LaPorta had 10 touchdowns as a rookie, three more than expected, according to PFF. If his production in the end zone drops, it’s hard to imagine him getting enough more targets to make up for it. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the clear top target in Detroit’s offense, and Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams should get bigger roles. Drafting LaPorta in the top 24 is too much risk. While he should repeat as an elite fantasy option, there are better opportunities at the tight end position later in the draft.

INSTEAD: Wait for Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride or Dalton Kincaid

Selecting an elite tight end can provide a huge positional advantage as the position becomes more of a have and have-not in fantasy games. Travis Kelce’s dominance has proven that finding the TE1 pays off. LaPorta may be on his way to a similar career, but will still have to compete against a strong group of tight ends to keep his fantasy crown. Kelce and Mark Andrews are the two most recent TE1s and the first choice in elite offenses with elite quarterbacks. Trey McBride had his breakout role late last season and is an up-and-coming player in his third year, averaging 11.5 fantasy points at half PPR as of Week 10, identical to LaPorta’s season average. Dalton Kincaid is another popular candidate to breakout as he has the potential to be Josh Allen’s favorite target in his second season. Andrews might offer the best value as the current TE4 and 48th overall player according to FantasyPro’s ADP. He’s the projected top target on Baltimore’s defense, a proven star in his prime, and was still the TE4 in points per game in injury-plagued 2023. He’s as safe an option as it gets and is just a few years removed from being a TE1 finish. Passing on LaPorta likely means passing on one of the top three to five tight ends, but also a high-level running back or wide receiver. The next three rounds all have players with realistic chances to be the TE1. Taking a De’Von Achane, Travis Etienne Jr. or DJ Moore and then grabbing another elite tight end a round or two later might prove more worthwhile, as the positional drop-off is steeper at running back and receiver.